09/12/08: 07:00 CDT/12:00 UT: Large and Dangerous Hurricane Ike Approaches Upper Texas Coast.
National Hurricane Center

07:15 CDT/12:15 UT, GOES satellite images:
left: RGB Enhanced; right: AVN. Credit: NOAA

Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory number 45a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl al092008
700 am CDT Fri Sep 12 2008

Large and dangerous hurricane Ike approaching the upper Texas Coast...

A hurricane warning remains in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to Baffin Bay, Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast in the warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas. A tropical storm warning is also in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border... including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

For storm information specific to your area... including possible inland watches and warnings... please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 700 am CDT... 1200z... the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 26.9 north... longitude 92.2 west or about 365 miles... 585 km... east of Corpus Christi, Texas and about 230 miles... 370 km... southeast of Galveston, Texas.

Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph... 20 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today... with a turn toward the north expected on Saturday. On the forecast track... the center of Ike will be very near the upper Texas coast by late today or early Saturday. However... because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone... weather will deteriorate along the coastline today... long before the center reaches the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph... 165 km/hr... with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours... and Ike is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast.

Ike remains a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles... 195 km... from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles... 445 km. An oil platform in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico recently reported sustained winds of 109 mph... 176 km/hr... at an elevation of 400 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb... 28.23 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall... extending a greater than usual distance from the center due to the large size of the cyclone. Surge flooding of up to 25 feet... and possibly higher... could occur at the heads of bays. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous waves... can be expected within the tropical storm warning area along the northern Gulf coast. Above normal tides in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should gradually subside over the next day or so.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana... with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.

Repeating the 700 am CDT position... 26.9 n... 92.2 w. Movement toward... west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1000 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

- courtesy of NOAA National Hurricane Center; image credit: NOAA

As of 09/12/2008 05:00 CDT, water levels are rising along the Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southern Texas and range from 2.5 to 6.5 feet above predicted. The highest water levels are being recorded at Shell Beach, LA. Water levels along the eastern Gulf Coast are elevated 1.5 to 2.5 feet above predicted. Barometric pressure is falling along the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Winds are increasing across Mississippi and Louisiana with winds at Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA recording frequent gusts over 50 knots.

Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically. Water level predictions relative to Mean Lower Low Water are:

Shell Beach, LA: Next predicted high tide is 1.47 ft (0.45 m) at 09/12/2008 12:27 CDT.

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS: Next predicted high tide is 1.90 ft (0.58 m) at 09/12/2008 10:27 CDT.

Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA: Next predicted high tide is 1.56 ft (0.48 m) at 09/12/2008 07:30 CDT.

Calcasieu Pass, LA: Next predicted high tide is 1.90 ft (0.58 m) at 09/12/2008 12:53 CDT.

Sabine Pass North, TX: Next predicted high tide is 1.60 ft (0.49 m) at 09/12/2008 13:28 CDT.

Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX: Next predicted high tide is 1.80 ft (0.55 m) at 09/12/2008 13:03 CDT.

USCG Freeport, TX: Next predicted high tide is 1.40 ft (0.43 m) at 09/12/2008 12:20 CDT.

Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS: Next predicted high tide is 1.46 ft (0.45 m) at 09/12/2008 08:42 CDT.

Pensacola, FL: Next predicted high tide is 1.71 ft (0.52 m) at 09/12/2008 09:21 CDT.

Panama City, FL: Next predicted high tide is 1.65 ft (0.50 m) at 09/12/2008 08:42 CDT.

Analyst: ND

- courtesy of NOAA; image credit: NOAA